Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte set to resign after far-right party leader’s call for a no-confidence vote

ROME —  Italian Premier Giuseppe Conte said he will submit his resignation on Tuesday, a move that preempted a looming vote of no confidence called by his own interior minister, the far-right Matteo Salvini — and one that pushes Italy deeper into a political crisis.

Conte’s offer to resign could usher in a more moderate coalition government. But it also has the potential to empower Salvini to make his bid to lead the nation further to the right ahead of critical budget talks with the European Union and amid an ongoing stand-off with Europe over Salvini’s hardline stance on migration.

While both Conte’s Five Star Movement and the far-right League of Salvini present themselves as anti-establishment, they have strong disagreements on most areas of policy.

Salvini’s party has also soared in the polls recently, overshadowing the once more popular Five Star Movement, that was founded by a comedian.

The country’s president, Sergio Mattarella — who has wide constitutional powers during times of crisis — is now widely expected to call for consultations with party leaders, during which he would gauge whether a new government can be cobbled together.

If parties fail to form a new coalition, Italians are expected to head back to the polls.

But a coalition between the Five Star Movement and the center-left Democratic Party (PD) would be among the most likely scenarios, according to analysts from across the political spectrum.

“This is the Five Star’s last shot,” said Massimiliano Panarari, author of a book on the Five Star Movement. Whereas they are still the biggest party in parliament, their power would be hugely diminished if elections were held now, he said.

Such an alliance would likely send Salvini’s far-right League back into opposition.

But the risky political maneuver could still work out in Salvini’s favor, even in the absence of snap elections. Forming a new government without him and without a new vote could alienate some voters and boost his appeal even further.

Yet a sudden departure from government may also disrupt Salvini’s political momentum, which has seen the interior minister rise in the polls in recent months and gain the reputation as the country’s de facto leader.

Salvini appeared to want to take advantage of those gains when he proposed a motion of no confidence in his own prime minister and called for snap elections.

Earlier this month, Salvini had wistfully pointed out how “something changed, something broke” — implying that he would pull the plug on the coalition.

The breakup, though, did not preclude further theatrics in what has long been described as a made-for-TV reality show.

Last Thursday, Salvini appeared to backtrack, appealing to his fellow deputy premier and Five Star party leader Luigi Di Maio by promising that he would still support his party’s flagship policy of reducing the size of Italy’s bloated parliament.

“I’m the minister of the interior and I hope I will be for a long time yet,” he said, a week after appearing to attempt to derail the very coalition keeping him in that position. Salvini promised his mobile phone was “always on.”

His pledge did not seem to resolve tensions, however, and Conte lashed out at Salvini last week, accusing him of being “disloyal,” “obsessed” with stopping migrants and of chasing polls.

Di Maio rejected Salvini’s “regretful, tardy” offer.

Salvini’s decision to backtrack, analysts said, may have been due to fear of a truce between the Five Stars and the center left PD — political rivals that until recently repeatedly ruled out ever becoming coalition partners.

Observers first noted signs of rapprochement between the two parties early last week when the Five Star party and the PD together dismissed Salvini’s request to have the no confidence motion on the very next day, resulting in a rare defeat for the League leader.

Former prime minister Matteo Renzi said a coalition between the Democrats and the Five Star Movement was the only way to prevent a “budgetary catastrophe and an extremist drift.”

• Noack reported from Berlin.
• The Washington Post