Conquering Kyiv would be a very hard task for a Russian army, much harder than the Chechen campaign in the 1990s, even though Russian army is currently in a better condition. Attacking the city right away in the fifth and subsequent days has been met with stiff opposition from the defence of Ukrainian territory by its loyal citizens. Ukranian president is not willing to surrender right away. Destruction will continue on both sides in and out of Kyiv.
As situation is now, it means death for many thousands of Russian troops, it would destabilize the situation inside of Russia, and it would make Ukrainians even more devoted to protect their country and resist the Russian invasion the more. What could have accounted for a Russian tanker that ran over a passing car on the other side of the road killing all inside it if it were not hatred for humanity. Fighting in Kyiv would likely last longer than expected with the level of resistance here in Kyiv. What will these things Putin is doing now have effect on his political career. It is really unthinkable.
At the same time, there were reports of government employees resigning in disgust over their country’s invasion of Ukraine. The Russian leader finally unleashed his forces on his western newighbour last Thursday. Russian soldiers launched a massive attack from the north, east and south, as they sought quickly to take key objectives
NATO force’s are sending war equipment and anti-missile weapons to Ukrainians and when this reaches its destination, the Ukrainians will be most energised. We are into a long drawn battle in Ukraine. In as much as Ukraine is been fed by by the West on “buffer stock” basis, especially the javelin guns and equipment, the war lingers except there is a wave in this week with the meetings between the parties at Belarus borders.
But what happens next with the ragging war in Kyiv? A long, bloody and expensive clash and final occupation, or a puppet regime established by Putin; that collapses as soon as his tanks leave? Then, there’s the trouble on the home front.
Even if the city falls, Russia is to get a ruined place with lots of partisan activities, which will be a drain on both the personnel and economy. So many troops would be needed just to control the city and its outskirts, which are mostly forests, suitable for guerrilla activities, that further invasion of Ukraine is hardly going to be possible.
Nobody is supposed to criticise Putin, but it’s actually hard to find anyone in Russia who will actually praise him right now.
In the West failed politicians retire and enjoy a lucrative retirement on the lecture circuit. But Russia has a ‘winner takes all’ political system and nobody ever just leaves politics for a quiet life in their houses . He may have a few problems ahead. This problem will be like what USA experienced in the decade they occupied Afganistan and had to withdraw finally. The Talibans are already back in government there.
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