The political battle front is getting hotter by the day after the completion of all the parties’ presidential primaries.
The electoral arbiter, Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, has released the list of about 15 candidates jostling for the hot seat in Aso Rock as each of them have a date with history on February 25, 2023.
Each of the candidates has embarked on clandestine campaigns, strategizing with allies both at home and abroad. While Dubia has literally become the political headquarters of the People’s Democratic Party with Abubakar Atiku as standard bearer, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu has also moved to Paris, France for ‘important meetings. Peter Obi also embarked on information gathering on how to govern a country with a trip to Egypt. Many more candidates are also not folding their hands. But only one of them will emerge champion and installed president of Nigeria come May 29, next year.
Permit me, therefore, to x-ray the chances of some of these candidates here. Apologies to other candidates that are not mentioned because of space.
BOLA AHMED TINUBU.
At the moment, the ruling APC has 25 governors and controls majority at the National Assembly. President Muhammadu Buhari may not have achieved so much on the economy because of hyper inflation and poor exchange rates, his impacts in terms of building infrastructure can’t be compared with any government in the last 30 years. Security is also a threat to the achievement ofthis government. Although, it’s a global challenge but ,looking at where we are today and where we were under the previous administration when Abuja was already been overrun, we have made some progress in these three areas,
PMB government and his cult-like followers in the north and the patriotic APC governors will no doubt work for the victory of their party.
The standard bearer Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his running mate who is likely to be a Muslim will no doubt complement the efforts of his boss by garnering votes for the party. The 2023 general elections has continued to attract global attention because Nigeria is very significant to the rest of the world as the most populous black nation in the world and a big democratic nation. Therefore, democratic nations around the world are providing supports and all kinds of encouragement to enable our country to sustain the wheel of democratic journey.
Another interesting factor that is making 2023 very unique is the emergence of the kingmaker himself, the Jagaban of Borgu into the presidential race. In the history of this country we have not been blessed with a president that actually prepared for the position of leadership as BAT. Although we had civil rule since 1999; our political space has been largely dominated by retired army generals including the outgoing president, Buhar. But 2023 elections will produce a full blown civilian president and with 95% assurance ,BAT will emerge as the president.
In one of my write ups, I stated that election is about logistics and logistics required huge resources. If I may ask, who among the presidential candidates has Television station, Newspapers and Radio Station to cover both electronics and print media during campaign? Do you know that while BAT will continue to enjoy massive publicity as expected, he will also be smiling to the bank at the expense of his competitors?
Who among them has the fastest means of transportation like private jet? None. No wonder he was the only one that campaigned everywhere during the primary election of APC because he planned himself ahead of others.
Like PMB, Tinubu can also boast of foot soldiers across the social landscape of the country. His monumental landmarks projects in Lagos and his political sagacity and sound knowledge of the economy with his global expertise and exposure and his unprecedented philanthropy are some of the factors that will give him victory in 2023.
ATIKU ABUBAKAR.
He emerged once again as tbe PDP flag bearer for 2023 general election and he has since picked Ifeanyi Okowa as his running mate. His action has continued to attract criticism among the PDP leaders on two grounds. Those who preferred Nyesome Wike as his running mate and those who insist that presidency should move to the South. Atiku has been around, but apart from being groomed by the late Yar ‘Adua senior and his emergence as governor of Adamawa State in 1999 and Ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo picking him as his running mate, he probably can’t lay any claim to any achievement in the public space on his own.
Whatever they achieved during his period in office with OBJ were attributed to OBJ and not Atiku. Yes, he has some business interests here and there with support base across the country, but not comparable to his main competitor, Tinubu.
The current travails of the opposition party as a house divided against itself, the impunity in the party and inability of Atiku to bring the aspirants who contested against him together after the primary like what BAT did immediately after the primary, ,may work greatly against his ambition.
PETER OBI.
Peter Obi was two terms governor of Anambra State on the platform of APGA founded by Okorie and the late Emeka Ojukwu. It was expected to have been expanded by Peter Obi to most of the South Eastern States as a regional political bloc like what BAT did in the West. But Peter Obi, decamped to PDP and now Labour Party. He is the flag bearer of the party, otherwise known as the 3rd force.
If you ask for my opinion, this rag tagged 3rd force has been there for years. They are the creation of some confused elite and it has never worked for them. Peter Obi and his Obidient philosophy is coming too late as the race to the presidency is not a 100 meter show or on religion or ethnicity. It’s not on Twitter or Facebook. It’s on structures built over the years.
In politics, the so-called labour doesn’t respond to their national leadership’s calling but their pay masters and region. Yes, Peter Obi built Schools but Anambra State should have been turned to the business hub of the region like BAT did by turning Lagos as the 5th largest economy in Africa and still counting.
I can convincingly throw my hat that the odds, in all ramifications, favour the emergence of Bola Tinubu as the president of the country after Buhari.
.Otunba Sola A Olatunji wrtes from Lagos.
