By Mike Ojoobanikan
It was as if Williams Shakespeare, in Julius Caeser, had Nigeria in mind when he put these immortal words in the mouth of Brutus: “It is the bright day that brings forth the adder, and that craves wary walking.” Just as the sun makes this cold blooded reptile active and dangerous, the imminent 2019 elections have made many politicians in the country to become hyper-active.
In the past one week, Nigerian politicians have been changing fidelities without qualms or moving from one camp to the other with no much effort than crossing to greet the man the next door. Early this week, 14 senators moved from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC). That notwithstanding, the APC keeps its majority with 52 senators while PDP has 50. If you, dear reader, are confused about the calculation, there are 109 senators, two are no more; Joshua Dariye, former Plateau State Governor has been sent to the slammer for sleaze. While ADC has three, the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) has two Senators. In the House of Representatives 37 members left the APC. Here, the party is still in the majority with 192; PDP has 156 members; APGA has five.
Outside the National Assembly, the zig-zag game still continues. Benue State Governor Samuel Ortom dumped the APC. So also is Governor Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto State.
Drama also ensued before the defections: The siege to the official quarters of Senate President, Bukola Saraki, his invitaton by the Police and the EFCC’s summon of Ike Ekweremadu, his deputy. Azeez Odukale, an analyst put it this way: “2019 film has started and it is becoming interesting. Kwankwaso invited to the villa, Saraki invited by the Police, Ekweremadu invited by the EFCC, 15 APC Senators and 37 House of Representatives members defect to PDP- all within 24 hours. Police IGP invited the Senate President around 8pm, the same police blocked his house as early as 7am the next day on his way to honour the invitation. The current IGP is now Inspector General of Politician. It is pathetic that the police are now a tool for politicians.
PMB, Oshiomole and some Governors met Kwankwaso to convince him to stay in APC but he still moved to PDP. Interestingly the Senate President has not defected. Hate him or love him, Saraki knows the game of politics very well.”
Implication of the Defections
Analysts believe that whatever anybody may say to make Nigerians believe that the defections will have no effects, there is no doubt that they will affect voting patterns since all the affected politicians have their own machines and foot soldiers or followers.
Another implication is that the situation in the two chambers of the National Assembly may make the President vulnerable as they may which to frustrate bills and even threaten to impeach him or reverse the voting order in 2019, so said another analyst.
The new developments also show that political engagements did not start early enough because the different shades of opinions that moved from PDP the other time, as another politician argued, did not blend well up till date.
Up north, the vote of Rabiu Kwankwaso can no longer be taken for granted by the APC government at the fedetral level. Worse still, the alignment between him and Ibrahim Shekarau will threaten the return of Abdullahi Ganduje.
In Kaduna, however, the move by the APC leadership to make sure that Shehu Sani stays within its fold is deft, despite the differences between him and Governor Nasir El-Rufai.
The above notwithstanding, the shifting sand dunes are among the elite members. The real voters are the hoi polloi who do not browse the web or speak high voltage diction.
