Anthony Joshua v Alexander Povetkin: How The Fight Could Pan Out

By Dominic Ingle

Joshua must be patient – and keep his head – against a 39-year-old boxer who has shown chinks in his armour and is likely to be gassing by the fifth or sixth round

 1 Joshua will start by seeking to establish his jab

A lot of casual fans want to see Anthony Joshua banging people out in a couple of rounds but an opponent who is more resistant has to be broken down first. Joshua is smart. He knows that. And given he has a four-inch height and seven-inch reach advantage over Alexander Povetkin I expect him to start on the outside, dominating with his jab and gradually wearing down Povetkin, much like Wladimir Klitschko did during his wide points victory over the Russian in 2013.

2 Once the jab is working, apply the power

I wasn’t impressed with Povetkin’s last performance against David Price, even though he finished it with a peach of a knockout, because the Russian was in serious trouble at the end of the third. Price is a big puncher but he’s not the fastest – whereas Joshua is more explosive and can bang even harder. I would give it two or three rounds to see what Povetkin has got and then start throwing a couple of power shots behind the jab to test his chin. And as soon as you get him going – finish him.

3 Povetkin must weather the early storm

I struggle to see how Povetkin can win this. I’m not doubting his pedigree – like Joshua he is an Olympic super-heavyweight champion – and puts his shots together nicely. Having been brought up in the Russian system he is also correct in what he does, although that makes him easier to read. His best hope is to weather the early storm by keeping his defence tight and as Joshua fades get in close with his big hooks and uppercuts. It’s not an impossible scenario but I can’t see it happening.

4 Joshua must be patient – and keep his head

Joshua’s last performance against Joseph Parker was criticised because there was no knockout but I saw it differently. Don’t forget Parker was unbeaten and had never been put down – yet Joshua’s trainer, Robert McCracken, devised a gameplan that gave his man an easy night. Meanwhile Dillian Whyte only just clung on to beat Parker. There will be pressure on Joshua to get the knockout with 80,000 in Wembley baying for blood but there is no need to take risks. The knockout will come.

5 My prediction? Joshua wins in five or six

Some people think Joshua has stamina issues – he looked desperately tired against Klitschko and Carlos Takam. But a good young one will always beat a good older one and at 39, time is not on Povetkin’s side. He has also shown chinks in his armour, especially against Price. While the Russian will be competitive for three rounds, I expect him to be gassing by rounds five or six. Which is when I expect Joshua to get him out of there.

Strengths: Joshua is the epitome of a modern heavyweight – 6ft 6in tall, strong and explosive, and with tremendous power in both hands. Twenty knockouts in his 21-0 record tells its own story and, at 28, he is still improving.

Weaknesses: There are some question marks over his stamina. But while he looked out on his feet against Wladimir Klitschko he was able to get a second wind to win in the 11th round, and also overcome a flat spot against Carlos Takam to win late.

Last fight: A wide – if not wildly exciting – points victory over the New Zealander boxer Joseph Parker in April. However Joshua showed improved defence and was rarely troubled in winning his 21st professional fight.

Outside interests: Joshua says that if he wasn’t a fighter he would be a businessman, and he already owns four companies under the AJBXNG banner. Also enjoys travelling when he is not training.

Alexander Povetkin

Strengths: The Russian has an impressive pedigree, having won the 2004 Olympic super-heavyweight title. He also has a good jab, effective combinations and significant power. Only one defeat on his record – to Wladimir Klitschko in 2013.

Weaknesses: At 6ft 2in he is small for a modern heavyweight and at 39 his best days are surely behind him. Looked to breathing heavily after three rounds in his last fight before overcoming David Price.

Last fight: A fifth-round knockout of Price on the Joshua-Parker undercard. However Povetkin was buzzed in the first round, and sent onto the ropes in the third, before a thunderous hook brought him victory.

Outside interests: A self-confessed adrenaline junkie, who enjoys parachute jumps from planes and helicopters. However he has given up riding motorbikes because it is too dangerous.

(The Guardian of UK)